Prediction of epidemic progress based on data and mathematics
For the decision-making of task force, which take key decisions necessary to manage epidemics and pandemics, it is very important to know not only the current situation, but also to have available forecasts of the development of the situation in various scenarios. Modeling of the spread of infectious diseases is currently a very hot topic.
Various types of theoretically justified mathematical models, which have been experimentally verified in the past, are used to predict the development of the epidemic. Some of them are also studied at the Institute of Mathematics and the Institute of Informatics of the UPJŠ Faculty of Science. A simple example of a current pandemic development model that can be used to roughly estimate the prediction is at: https://kiselak.shinyapps.io/corona/.